After concluding a two-day monetary policy meeting,the Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%,a move that aligns with market expectations.Currently,a majority of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members anticipate implementing only one reduction in interest rates before the year ends.This decision marks the seventh consecutive meeting without a change in rates since September of the previous year,reflecting the Fed's cautious approach amidst ongoing economic uncertainty.

The central bank's policy statement highlighted a "moderate further progress" in achieving its long-term inflation target of 2%.This wording represents a noticeable shift from previous statements that described the situation as one of "lacking further progress." Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed out that inflation has significantly decreased from around 7% to the current 2.7%,although it still remains higher than desired.The Fed intends to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance,stressing the need for additional positive economic data to bolster confidence in the transition towards the 2% inflation goal.

Recent economic indicators have revealed a cooling in the U.S.economy,providing additional support for the prospect of interest rate cuts.For example,the GDP growth for the first quarter was revised down from 1.6% to 1.3%.Additionally,the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May fell to 67.4,much lower than the anticipated 76.The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also dropped to 48.7,indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.However,unexpectedly robust non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 272,000 jobs,exceeding expectations by 90,000.Such a strong labor market presents the Fed with more reasons to delay lowering interest rates.

On the same day,the Fed released its latest economic outlook.Compared to the forecasts from the March meeting,the Fed maintained expectations for economic growth in the U.S.at 2.1% for this year and 2% for next.It also projected unemployment rates at 4% and 4.2% for the next two years.According to the economic outlook,the median prediction from the 19 FOMC members for the target range of the federal funds rate by the end of this year is between 4.9% and 5.4%.Of these members,11 suggested that the Fed might implement one rate cut within the year,while 8 forecast two rate cuts.A substantial majority of officials predict the possibility of up to five rate cuts by the end of 2025.

In a notable turn of events,just hours before the Fed's policy statement,the U.S.consumer price index (CPI) for May was released.This data reported a year-over-year increase of 3.3% in the CPI,with the core CPI,which excludes food and energy,rising by 3.4%.Both figures represent the lowest year-over-year increases since 2021 and were below prior economists' expectations.This data has further bolstered confidence among observers that the Fed may announce rate cuts before the year concludes.Using the CME Group's FedWatch Tool,the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting exceeds 60%,while the likelihood for November has approached 85%.

However,the U.S.public remains skeptical about the implications of these declining inflation numbers.Surveys conducted by institutions like the Pew Research Center reveal that many people feel increased pressure in their daily lives,particularly among lower-income minority groups.The rise in prices for essential goods remains a primary contributor to this stress.According to the U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,grocery prices increased by 24.6% from March 2020,and the cost of dining out surged by 25.6%.Users on social media platforms have expressed frustration,citing that the actual price increases for food have far exceeded these figures,with prices for McDonald's most popular meals seeing an average jump of 141.4%.Many consumers have shared comparisons of their grocery bills from four years ago to today,revealing price increases often exceeding 50%,with some items dramatically increasing by over 300%.Staple items such as milk and eggs have seen prices double.

The stark contrast between official inflation metrics and the lived experiences of everyday Americans encapsulates the disconnection many feel regarding the current economic climate.Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan indicates consumer confidence levels comparable to those observed during the 2008 financial crisis and the economic turmoil of the late 1970s and early 1980s.Many consumers are apprehensive about spending due to soaring prices.In response to these public sentiments,Powell commented that the Fed does not dictate how people should feel about the economy,emphasizing that different individuals have diverse experiences,and the Fed's actions will remain data-driven.

Simultaneously,maintaining high-interest rates for an extended duration has begun to exert pressure on the U.S.economy.On one hand,the elevated rate environment has stifled business investment and expansion,impeding overall economic vitality.On the other hand,it exacerbates the risk of increasing national debt.Under current interest rates,federal interest payments on national debt are projected to reach as high as $870 billion by 2024,with total interest expenses expected to surpass $1 trillion in the coming year.

Furthermore,the persistent strength of the U.S.dollar has created pressures on various international currencies.Japanese media and experts have broadly anticipated a continued depreciation of the yen,which poses challenges for Japan's economy as it struggles to escape deflationary pressures.Such a trend could negatively impact Japanese retail,energy,and aviation sectors,further burdening companies reliant on imported raw materials.Economic analysts in South Korea have indicated that the combination of a weakening won and significantly rising global oil prices complicates the cost structure for businesses,increasing financial strain and potentially leading to further weaknesses in domestic consumption.

Therefore,the Federal Reserve finds itself navigating a delicate balancing act characterized by dual risks: raising interest rates too quickly may spur "secondary inflation," while moving too slowly could hinder economic growth.The upcoming three months are critical for observation,with inflation-related data releases expected prior to the Fed's July meeting,and three additional inflation datasets slated for release before the September FOMC meeting.These forthcoming metrics will play a pivotal role in informing the Fed’s policy decisions moving forward.